![gartner hype cycle 2010 gartner hype cycle 2010](http://resources.emartin.net/blog/pic/Gartner-Hype-Cycle-Social-Software-2010.jpg)
Hence I have to conclude that Gartner's curve is not based upon some external measurement of physical property but instead it is more likely by a process of expert review (i.e. I can currently only state where something was in the past once it has become a commodity. from Gartner curve to expectation curve to evolution lifecyle and accurately state where an activity was along the uncertainty axis. If the Gartner curve was based upon the measurement of some physical property, it would be possible to reverse the process i.e.We can assume this is when the technology starts to spread and ignores any early stage effects (invention etc). The Gartner curve specifically refers to the technology trigger.Gartner's curve doesn't define its time axis and we can therefore assume they're referring to a general shape which appears over an undetermined length of time. the axis of time is different (some are stretched, some are shortened). You can't simply overlay the expectation curves of different activities on top of each other - i.e.There are hence a couple of points I'd like to make clear. you can't predict when something will evolve). This required lots of assumptions because the evolution ( lifecycle) curve does not have a time axis (i.e. To generate the expectation curve I had to create a model over time.